UNISONActive Analysis - The United States, Two Years Later‏

Guest post submitted by a US reader of UNISONActive
It was an inauspicious beginning for any U.S. President: Leadership over two wars, a global economic crisis already more than a year in the making, and a crumbling domestic infrastructure. Obama, however, also received a massive international welcome and almost universal pass by the global Left, even as he made aggressive commitments to a protracted AfPak war or noticeably backslid on his position regarding Palestine.

His promises for healthcare reform, the passage of the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA), the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, the closing of Guantanamo, his brilliant tactical electoral campaign, as well as the drastic improvement of his social skillset over his predecessor enabled his honeymoon period to be extensive and unassailable.

As we are nearing the midpoint of his first term, analyses of the radical Left have unfortunately, however, held true. Consistently noting the flawed logic of placing the possibility of revolutionary change in the hands of one individual (who has never claimed to be anticapitalist or socialist, and heads up the largest imperial power in the world), we see the littering of unfulfilled pledges to the workers of this country and across the globe

Asia Times reported on August 5 that “Seventeen months after President Barack Obama pledged to withdraw all combat brigades from Iraq by September 1, 2010, he quietly abandoned that pledge on Monday, admitting implicitly that such combat brigades would remain [at least] until the end of 2011.”

In late June The New York Times noted that, “Stymied by political opposition and focused on competing priorities, the Obama administration has sidelined efforts to close the Guantánamo prison, making it unlikely that President Obama President Obama will fulfill his promise to close it before his term ends in 2013.”

And Ezra Klein, Washington Post policy analyst, argued in May of last year that EFCA will not have the votes, no matter what the Obama Administration might say to try to placate Labor. He observed that not only has The White House demanded a lot of compromise from organized labor -- most notably on the excise tax – it’s offered very little in return. Klein, among others, have said that the White House has yet to pick a fight on Labor’s behalf, which is simply bad politics, and inevitably bad for the American worker.

Then there are the inevitable unforeseen issues that arose during Obama’s presidency thus far, most notably the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In late June, Politics Daily published poll results in which nearly 6 in 10 Americans disapproved of President Obama’s handling of the massive oil spill, while two-thirds said he has not been tough enough on BP. There are constant comparisons of the spill to the Hurricane Katrina crisis. Obama’s too little-too late response to the spill, along with his exceptionally disappointing and lackluster participation in the Copenhagen talks around climate change, dashed expectations that he would emerge as an international champion, rescuing us from the catastrophic environmental crisis in which the world is mired, and in which the United States has played the biggest part in creating.

Staying the Course in Afghanistan

Reports from the Wikileaks drew a muted response from Obama, who, according to ABC News, downplayed the content by concluding that “these documents don't reveal any issues that haven't already informed our public debate on Afghanistan. Indeed, they point to the same challenges that led me to conduct an extensive review of our policy last fall,” Mr. Obama said. The President continued by reminding us that that policy review led to a substantial increase in troops and a strategy that he believes can lead to victory.

Therefore Obama is able to continue his “stay the course” rhetoric regarding Afghanistan. Echoing what Bush said 4 years ago when he announced that "We're not going to lose in Iraq. As a matter of fact, we will win in Iraq so long as we stay the course…. My view is the only way we lose in Iraq is if we leave before the job is done;” Obama stated last month that “Now we have to see that strategy through. And as I told the leaders, I hope the House will act today to join the Senate, which voted unanimously in favor of this funding, to ensure that our troops have the resources they need and that we're able to do what's necessary for our national security.”

Foreign Policy reported that while polls showing pessimism about U.S. prospects in Afghanistan seem to suggest that Obama has lost the United States' support for the war there, general exhaustion from years of war and specific support for Obama's Afghanistan strategy should not be conflated. A careful reading of the polling data on Afghanistan shows that while the public is weary, they haven't yet given up on the mission or Obama's redefined strategy.

At the moment, there is also little hope among the U.S. public for a successful conclusion to the conflict in Afghanistan. When asked if it is even possible to achieve stability in Afghanistan and the region, only 33 percent of those surveyed said yes. And in poll after poll, the United States still approves of Obama's handling of Afghanistan and gives high marks to his specific policies. A recent USA Today/Gallup poll found that 58 percent support the president's timetable to begin withdrawing some troops in July 2011. And, although the question isn't asked as frequently, other polls found significant majorities believe in the mission in Afghanistan even as they see U.S. efforts hitting obstacles. Sixty-one percent believe that "eliminating the threat from terrorists operating from Afghanistan is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for," and 76 percent believe what happens in Afghanistan matters to their security in the U.S.

This polling data shows the crucial responsibility of the global anti-war movement to continue its countering of the “War on Terror” rhetoric begun by the Bush Administration and continued by Obama. Just as the public grew increasingly more disapproving of Bush's Iraq policy when there was no improvement and no exit, however, Obama’s present approval ratings on Afghanistan of around 50 percent are at risk to decline quickly if the Left can breakthrough public consciousness and offer an alternative conclusion to the Administration’s imperialist strategy.

More cracks in the facade

In fact there are many cracks that point not just to the disillusionment of the U.S. working class, but the possibility that there is much space and much potential for resistance and fightback. In late June, Newsweek reported that solid majorities from its latest poll disapprove of the way the president is handling almost every major challenge confronting his administration, which is a complete reversal from last year.

Last year, only 41 percent frowned on Obama's economic leadership; now that number has risen to 58 percent. Then, a mere 27 percent felt negatively about the president's command in Iraq; today, 51 percent disapprove. A whopping 60 percent don't like the way Obama is grappling with the oil spill in the gulf, and the majority of Americans are also critical of his efforts to reform the financial sector—the split there is 53 percent against, 36 percent for. Even health care - the administration's major accomplishment and a purported selling point for the fall midterm elections—isn't a plus. Overall, 43 percent approve of Obama's handling of health care, while 51 percent don't.

The challenge to workers

U.S. unions represent only 7.4 percent of private-sector workers today. As NYT labor reporter Steven Greenhouse observed, while European workers often still see themselves as proletarians in an enduring class struggle, American workers, even those earning $20,000 a year, tend to view themselves as part of an upwardly mobile middle class. And too often, the leadership of unions in the United States who had previously been rank-and-file militants, now often work hand-in-hand with CEOs to improve corporate competitiveness to protect jobs and pensions, and sideline or silence activists who support a harder line.

But the news is not all bleak. The emotions of hope, the desire for change, the empowerment of ordinary workers that stirred the nation two short years ago during the Obama campaign for presidency, are not quickly buried. The contradictions of what the Obama Administration promised, and what it’s produced, has not been lost on the American people. Neither has the Obama campaign’s rhetoric that we all have the power to create change, and that we need to hold our leadership accountable.

In 2008, although it is a number that has decreased over the years, U.S. unions engaged in 159 work stoppages, according to the Bureau of National Affairs. There were demonstrations against the A.I.G. bonuses, and workers staged a sit-down strike in December when their factory in Chicago was closed. Students on campuses have struck in solidarity with workers as well as issues around education. A recent anti-war gathering in Albany, NY, in July 2010, drew 750 organizers from around the country. And organizers of the U.S. Social Forum in Detroit reported 15,000 delegates to the over 1200 meetings held in June.

The compelling and steely rhetoric of the Obama campaign of two years ago means that although the problems workers face are real and not solvable by one messianic individual, the knowledge remains that we can make a difference and help effect the change we see is necessary. The opportunity to agitate, to organize, and to mobilize movements in the United States is vast, and progressive activists must now rise to the task.