The economy is a mess - told you so

UNISON Regional Head of Campaigning, Ravi Subramanian had a column published in yesterday's Nottingham Post. We have reproduced it below.

Usually it's satisfying to be proved right, but I have no satisfaction in myrecent predictions coming true. Only a few weeks ago I wrote a column for the Post with my forecast for 2011. Let me remind you of my predictions – and ask you six questions.

I predicted rising inflation, but even a grumpy trade union official like me did not expect it to rise so soon. The recently announced inflation increase related to December; that's before the VAT increase has taken effect. The next figures will show inflation nearer to 4 per cent. My first question: do you think this is good for the Notts economy?

I predicted the economy would suffer and unemployment would most likely go up. Recently announced GDP figures showed a 0.5 per cent contraction in the economy. The Chancellor claimed this was because of the bad weather. But this spin was exposed by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) which stripped out the bad weather and calculated underlying growth as zero, a drop of 0.7 per cent from the previous quarter. My second question: who do you believe, the Chancellor or the ONS?

My third question: do you feel confident about the economic recovery and the chance of unemployment falling? I predicted the Tories would continue to say that cuts are because of "profligate public spending". And I was right. I also said the spin would wear thin, and that is proving to be true as people ask themselves my fourth question: how did UK public spending cause a recession in the US, Greece, France, Spain, Italy and Ireland?

I predicted there would be anger that the bankers who caused this crash were not paying their fair share. Since then banks have announced bonus payouts of billions. My fifth question: does it feel like the bankers are paying their fair share and are you happy about this?

The TUC national demo in London on March 26 is the chance for everyone opposed to these cuts to send a strong message to the government. I predicted this demo will be as big as the poll tax demo in 1990. But that prediction will only come true if people make the effort to attend. My final question is: Will you be there? The future of public services and the economy are at stake.