However given the union response here in Ireland to Government austerity measures - which have increased taxes, pension contributions and cut earnings of hundreds of thousands of public service workers - it would be a mistake to assume that sustained union-led resistance in the UK is a foregone conclusion.
Back in February 2009 over 100 000 workers marched in Dublin in opposition to a pension levy on Ireland's one-third million public sector employees http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7903518.stm?ad=1
This initial groundswell of protest was built on by the ICTU's joint union 'get up stand up' campaign and a protracted period of industrial action short of strike action. In late March 2010 a draft public sector pay agreement was reached between ICTU's public services committee and the Government which is now being consulted on by unions and is meeting with a mixed response (condemned by some unions as heavily favouring Government) but I predict that it will ultimately meet with acquiescence when the vacillating Impact leadership recommends the deal in the forthcoming membership ballot. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/0415/1224268372551.html
It is the response of Siptu, Ireland's largest and historically most progressive union to the externally enforced and institutionalised austerity programme which is most instructive.The May Day speech of its leader Jack O'Connor is quoted extensively in the Irish Independent:
'it is fine for those opposed to the deal to say working people did not create this mess, but that does not address the issue. And let us be clear. It is potentially the most serious problem that has confronted this country since the Second World War in terms of its capacity to compromise our economic sovereignty and independence. . . There are trade unionists who believe that the proposals can be rejected without any requirement to engage in industrial conflict as a consequence, but they are not calculating for the €3bn cut in the deficit in 2011 and again in 2012, which are essential to the fiscal plan that the Government has locked us into with the EU.. And make no mistake about it, the Government will come back for more. It is impossible to anticipate the outcome of such an industrial conflict but it is clear that it will be represented as one-sixth of the workforce acting against the interests of everyone else in society and, even if we win, we will still be faced with the enormous legacy of debt and the need to borrow in the financial markets to maintain the services that are essential to civilised living. The wealthy can and should pay more but, in and of itself, this is not sufficient to resolve the problem.......the Government was elected and re-elected and as long as they are there we have to deal with them as we live in a democracy.”
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/union-boss-warns-of-more-cuts-if-deal-is-rejected-2161980.html
It doesn't take a giant leap of the imagination to predict similar 'dented shield' sentiments emanating from Congress House before 2010 is out. Strong leadership as evidenced by Crow is a good starting point but the lesson from Ireland is that bottom-up organisation to mobilise union members against cuts in living standards, pension entitlements and services is the only antidote to such capitulation and corporatism.
Pat O'Hagan